A virtuous cycle? Migrant integration policies, attitudes toward immigration, and populist radical right voting in Europe
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Are citizens less likely to support populist radical right parties (PRRPs) in countries with more inclusive migrant integration policies? Studies show that integration policies foster positive attitudes toward migrants, which, in turn, are associated with a lower likelihood of supporting PRRPs. However, the impact of integration policies on PRRP voting has not been assessed yet on a cross-country level—neither direct nor dependent on (anti)immigration attitudes. Using data from the European Social Survey 2016 and the Migrant Integration Policy Index (MIPEX) from 2011 and 2015 for 15 EU member states, we show that more inclusive integration policies are associated with a lower likelihood to support PRRPs. We also find a moderating effect of these policies on the impact of attitudes toward migrants on PRRP voting. However, the effect of migration policy change seems to be more context dependent.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".