How Close to the Mark Might Published Heritability Estimates Be?
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The behavioural scientist who requires an estimate of narrow heritability, h2, will conduct a twin study, and input the resulting estimated covariance matrices into a particular mode of estimation, the latter derived under supposition of the standard biometric model (SBM). It is known that the standard biometric model can be expected to misrepresent the phenotypic (genetic) architecture of human traits. The impact of this misrepresentation on the accuracy of h2 estimation is unknown. We aimed to shed some light on this general issue, by undertaking three simulation studies. In each, we investigated the parameter recovery performance of five modes- Falconer’s coefficient and the SEM models, ACDE, ADE, ACE, and AE- when they encountered a constructed, non-SBM, architecture, under a particular informational input. In study 1, the architecture was single-locus with dominance effects and genetic-environment covariance, and the input was a set of population covariance matrices yielded under the four twin designs, monozygotic-reared together, monozygotic-reared apart, dizygotic-reared together, and dizygotic-reared apart; in study 2, the architecture was identical to that of study 1, but the informational input was monozygotic-reared together and dizygotic-reared together; and in study 3, the architecture was multi-locus with dominance effects, genetic-environment covariance, and epistatic interactions. The informational input was the same as in study 1. The results suggest that conclusions regarding the coverage of h2 must be drawn conditional on a) the general class of generating architecture in play; b) specifics of the architecture’s parametric instantiations; c) the informational input into a mode of estimation; and d) the particular mode of estimationemployed. The results showed that the more complicated the generating architecture, the poorer a mode’s h2 recovery performance. Random forest analyses furthermore revealed that, depending on the genetic architecture, h2, the dominance and locus additive parameter, and proportions of alleles were involved in complex interaction effects impacting on h2 parameter recovery performance of a mode of estimation. Data and materials: https://osf.io/aq9sx/
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.015 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it