Replication Data for: Improving Opinion Poll Reporting: The Irish Polling Indicator
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Replication data for Improving Opinion Poll Reporting: The Irish Polling Indicator. This paper describes a statistical method for aggregating the information from opinion polls, following on from earlier work in Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom. Such aggregate estimates provide academic researchers with a time series of support for political parties, and inform the public better about opinion polls by focusing on trends and uncertainty in these estimates. The paper discusses the challenge of aggregating opinion polls in a multi-party setting (compared to the US and Australia) with a limited number of polls available (compared to the UK). It discusses how major sudden political and societal events, which have been common in Ireland since 2007, might be better taken into account in poll aggregation models. Finally, it discusses how these estimates can enhance opinion poll reporting in the media.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.021 | 0.057 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.008 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".