Kidney Volume and Risk of Incident Kidney Outcomes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Key Points Low kidney volume was a risk factor of incident CKD. A nonlinear relationship existed whereby individuals in the bottom tenth percentile of kidney volume exhibited exaggerated risk of CKD and albuminuria. Kidney volume could improve the classification of kidney disease risk. Background Low total kidney volume (TKV) is a risk factor of CKD. However, evaluations of nonlinear relationships, incident events, causal inference, and prognostic utility beyond traditional biomarkers are lacking. Methods TKV, height-adjusted TKV, and body surface area–adjusted TKV of 34,595 White British ancestry participants were derived from the UK Biobank. Association with incident CKD, AKI, and cardiovascular events were assessed with Cox proportional hazard models. Prognostic thresholds for CKD risk stratification were identified using a modified Mazumdar method with bootstrap resampling. Two-sample Mendelian randomization was performed to assess the bidirectional association of genetically predicted TKV with kidney and cardiovascular traits. Results Adjusted for eGFR and albuminuria, a lower TKV of 10 ml was associated with a 6% higher risk of incident CKD (hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03 to 1.08; P = 5.8×10 −6 ) in contrast to no association with incident AKI (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.02; P = 0.66). Comparison of nested models demonstrated improved accuracy over the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium Incident CKD Risk Score with the addition of body surface area–adjusted TKV or prognostic thresholds at 119 (tenth percentile) and 145 ml/m 2 (50th percentile). In Mendelian randomization, a lower genetically predicted TKV by 10 ml was associated with 10% higher CKD risk (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.14; P = 1.3×10 −7 ). Reciprocally, an elevated risk of genetically predicted CKD by two-fold was associated with a lower TKV by 7.88 ml (95% CI, −9.81 to −5.95; P = 1.2×10 −15 ). There were no significant observational or Mendelian randomization associations of TKV with cardiovascular complications. Conclusions Kidney volume was associated with incident CKD independent of traditional risk factors, including baseline eGFR and albuminuria. Mendelian randomization demonstrated a bidirectional relationship between kidney volume and CKD.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".