Machine learning on longitudinal multi-modal data enables the understanding and prognosis of Alzheimer’s disease progression
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a complex pathophysiological disease. Allowing for heterogeneity, not only in disease manifestations but also in different progression patterns, is critical for developing effective disease models that can be used in clinical and research settings. We introduce a machine learning model for identifying underlying patterns in Alzheimer's disease (AD) trajectory using longitudinal multi-modal data from the ADNI cohort and the AIBL cohort. Ten biologically and clinically meaningful disease-related states were identified from data, which constitute three non-overlapping stages (i.e., neocortical atrophy [NCA], medial temporal atrophy [MTA], and whole brain atrophy [WBA]) and two distinct disease progression patterns (i.e., NCA → WBA and MTA → WBA). The index of disease-related states provided a remarkable performance in predicting the time to conversion to AD dementia (C-Index: 0.923 ± 0.007). Our model shows potential for promoting the understanding of heterogeneous disease progression and early predicting the conversion time to AD dementia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".