1378-P: The Association between Baseline Hemoglobin A1c (A1C) and Risk of Progression from Prediabetes to Diabetes across Adult Age Groups
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction & Objectives: While A1c is a strong predictor of conversion from prediabetes to type 2 diabetes, it is unclear whether A1c values within the prediabetes range confer the same risk of conversion to type 2 diabetes within different adult age groups. Methods: Using linked population-based administrative health databases, we investigated the progression from prediabetes to diabetes among adults (≥20 years) with laboratory criteria for prediabetes living in Ontario, Canada between 2012-2022. New diabetes cases were captured using a well-validated administrative data algorithm. Competing risk and Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between A1c increments (~0.2%) within the prediabetes range (5.70-6.49%, vs <5.7%) and diabetes incidence in different decades. Results: Among 3,022,169 individuals with prediabetes, 139,450 (4.6%; mean age 54.1 ± 15.8 yrs) progressed to diabetes over a mean follow up of 4.78 years. The cumulative incidence of diabetes was greatest among those with baseline A1C levels of 6.30-6.49% in both younger (20-29 yrs: 34.5%) and older adults (≥70 yrs: 19.2%). Increased A1c conferred a far greater relative risk of progression to diabetes in adults aged 20-29 and 30-39 (A1c 6.30-6.49%: HR 51.7, 95% CI 45.0-59.3 and HR 41.3, 38.8-44.0, respectively). Relative conversion rates were more modest in adults aged ≥70 years across all A1c categories (A1c 6.30-6.49%: HR 9.7, 9.3-10.1). Conclusion: Baseline A1c was a stronger predictor of conversion from prediabetes to diabetes among younger adults, suggesting that diabetes prevention efforts should consider baseline A1C and age to reduce future risk of progression. Disclosure G.S. Fazli: None. L. Lipscombe: Other Relationship; Novo Nordisk Canada Inc. D. Thiruchelvam: None. C. Kenaszchuk: None. B.R. Shah: None. C. Ke: Advisory Panel; Sanofi. Speaker's Bureau; AstraZeneca. F.M. Ali: None. L. Rosella: None. G.L. Booth: None.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".