A case for implementing an HSV1/2, VZV, and syphilis lesion panel in Manitoba, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
(TPA), is becoming a significant public health concern, with rising incidence in Manitoba exceeding the national average. The province has also seen a demographic shift leading to women representing 51.9% of cases in 2021, leading to the re-emergence of congenital syphilis. Given the similarities in lesion appearance between TPA and other pathogens such as herpesviruses, accurate diagnosis is crucial for effective management and prevention. In order to address the potential for missed TPA cases, we conducted a quality assurance study from June 2021 to March 2023, screening over 5,000 mucocutaneous lesion swabs for TPA, initially submitted for herpes simplex virus (HSV) and varicella zoster virus (VZV) testing. Positivity rates were 13% for HSV1, 13% for HSV2, 6.7% for VZV, and 6.6% for TPA. Turnaround times (TAT) for TPA testing, as a send-out to the reference laboratory, averaged 17.8 days. Of the TPA-positive specimens, 36% did not have a corresponding TPA PCR test ordered, and 19% did not have accompanying syphilis serology within 30 days of collection. Creation of a multiplex lesion panel identified high sensitivity and specificity for HSV1, HSV2, VZV, and TPA, with robust reproducibility across multiple runs. Incorporation of TPA into a lesion panel improved the TAT to 4 days. Our findings emphasize the need for improved testing strategies to combat the syphilis epidemic and enhance public health outcomes.IMPORTANCESyphilis resurgence has become a significant global public health concern. In particular, the Canadian Prairies have been struggling with high incidence since 2016, exceeding the national Canadian average. We undertook a quality assurance study that highlighted significant gaps in diagnosis of acute syphilis, which led to the development of a highly sensitive and specific multiplex lesion assay for the dual detection of herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), varicella zoster virus (VZV), and syphilis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.013 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".