The thermal sensitivity of growth and survival in a wild reptile with temperature‐dependent sex determination
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Charnov‐Bull hypothesis is the leading explanation for the evolution of environmental sex determination (ESD), which includes temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD), the most common form of ESD. Charnov‐Bull predicts a sex‐by‐incubation temperature interaction for fitness, matching offspring sex with thermal conditions that increase parental fitness. However, there is no general explanation for how the sex‐by‐temperature interaction arises. Two competing explanations for the interaction lie in the survival to maturity hypothesis (SM) and the Trivers–Willard extension (TW). Under SM, the sex that matures later is produced under optimal incubation regimes as the late‐maturing sex accrues more mortality by maturation, while TW suggests that males are always produced under optimal incubation regimes as male mating success is more sensitive to condition (general health, vigor) than female fecundity. In a system where females mature later than males, as in the painted turtle Chrysemys picta , SM and TW generate opposite predictions for the effect of incubation temperature on juvenile survival. We incubated C. picta eggs under either female‐promoting temperatures (28 ± 3 °C) or male‐promoting temperatures (25 ± 3 °C), then released the hatchlings into their natal pond. We used a Bayesian capture–mark–recapture approach to follow their survival over two growing seasons. We found a 2% depression of biweekly survival in individuals incubated under the cooler temperature, providing subtle support for SM. Incubation treatments did not influence growth. Large‐scale field experiments such as this one will be necessary for understanding TSD evolution, and we underline general principles to execute such experiments successfully.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".