COVID19 vaccines as boosters or first doses: simulating scenarios to minimize infections and deaths
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Public health authorities face the issue of optimal vaccine distribution during the spread of pandemics. In this paper, we study the optimal way to distribute a finite supply rate of COVID-19 doses between either the first or second doses for unvaccinated individuals and the third doses (booster shots) for fully vaccinated individuals. We introduce a novel compartmental model that accommodates the vaccinated populations. This Booster model is implemented to simulate two prototypes of populations: one with a highly infected and highly vaccinated proportion, and another with a lowly infected and lowly vaccinated percentage. We namely use sample data from Russia and Djibouti, respectively.Our findings show that around one quarter of the vaccines should be employed as booster shots and the rest as first and second doses to minimize the deaths for the first type of population. On the other hand, the second type of population can minimize their number of deaths by mainly focusing on administering the initial two doses, rather than giving any booster shots. The novel Booster model allows us to study the effect of the third dose on a community and provides a useful tool to draw public policies on the distribution of vaccines during pandemics.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it