<i>APOE</i> epsilon variants and composite risk of dementia, disability, and death in the health and retirement study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Clinical trials in older adults are increasingly focused on functional outcomes, and the composite outcome of dementia, disability, and death is gaining pivotal importance. Genetic variation, particularly the APOE epsilon(ε) variants, may modify responses to new treatments. Although APOE ε4 is known to influence these outcomes separately, the magnitude of its effect on this composite outcome remains unknown. We tested the hypothesis that APOE ε4 increases, whereas APOE ε2 decreases, the risk of a composite outcome of dementia, disability, and death. METHODS: We evaluated clinical and genomic data from the Health and Retirement Study collected from 1992 to 2020. We used variants rs429358 and rs7412 to determine APOE genotypes, modeled dominantly (carriers/noncarriers). We conducted survival analysis, using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models with a composite endpoint of dementia, disability, and death. Our primary analysis evaluated participants with genetic data and no previous dementia or disability. In secondary analyses, we focused on persons aged > = 75 years without heart disease or stroke, a subpopulation increasingly important in clinical trials of older adults. RESULTS: We included 14,527 participants in the primary analysis. Over a median of 18 (Interquartile Range [IQR] 12-24) years, 6711 (46%) participants developed the composite outcome. In Cox analyses, APOE ε4 associated with higher risk (HR:1.15, 95%CI:1.09-1.22) of the composite outcome, whereas APOE ε2 associated with lower risk (HR:0.92, 95%CI:0.86-0.99). In the secondary analysis, we included 3174 participants. Over a median of 7 (IQR 4-11) years, 1326 participants (42%) developed the composite outcome. In Cox analyses, APOE ε4 associated with higher risk (HR:1.25, 95%CI:1.10-1.41) of the composite outcome, whereas APOE ε2 associated with lower risk (HR:0.84, 95%CI:0.71-0.98). CONCLUSIONS: APOE ε variants are linked to the risk of dementia, disability, and death in older adults. By examining these variants in clinical trials, we can better elucidate how they might alter the effectiveness of tested interventions. Importantly, this genetic information could help identify participants who may have greater absolute benefit from such interventions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".