Genetically Predicted IL-18 Inhibition and Risk of Cardiovascular Events: A Mendelian Randomization Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Inflammation is an emerging target for the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This drug-target Mendelian randomization (MR) study aimed to predict the on-target effects of IL-18 inhibition on CVD risk. Furthermore, we aimed to explore the effects of IL-18 inhibition on cardio-metabolic traits, cardiac structure, and function, and identify potential adverse outcomes. Methods We selected five independent circulating IL-18-lowering variants around the IL-18 gene locus from the Systematic and Combined AnaLysis of Olink Proteins (SCALLOP) consortium. We then performed two-sample MR analyses to investigate the association of genetically proxied IL-18-inhibition on downstream inflammatory markers, risk of CVD, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging measurements of cardiac structure and function, cardiometabolic traits, and a selection of potential adverse effects. We utilized data from the UK Biobank, Cardiogram, GIGASTROKE, and other large genomic consortia (sample range: 3,301-1,320,016). Results Following correction for multiple comparisons, one standard deviation (SD) lower in genetically-predicted circulating IL-18 was associated with reductions in downstream biomarkers of IL-18 signaling, including C-reactive protein (SD change -0.02, 95% CI -0.03, -0.02), tumor necrosis factor (SD change -0.19, CI -0.25, -0.14), interferon-gamma (SD change -0.15, CI -0.22, -0.08), and CXCL10 (SD change -0.13, CI -0.16, -0.09). Lower genetically-predicted IL-18 levels were associated with reduced risk of cardioembolic stroke (Odds Ratio [OR] 0.85, CI 0.79-0.92), but not other stroke subtypes. Furthermore, lower genetically predicted IL-18 levels were associated with reduced risk of peripheral arterial disease (OR 0.91, CI 0.84-0.97), atrial fibrillation (OR 0.94, CI 0.89-0.99), and heart failure (OR 0.84, CI 0.77-0.92), as well as improvements in CMR traits, including a reduction in left atrial volume (β -0.02, CI -0.03, -0.00). Lower genetically-predicted IL-18 levels were associated with lower risk of chronic kidney disease, autoimmune diseases, a favorable cardio-metabolic profile, and higher odds of lung cancer, but not infections. Conclusions Our study provides genetic support that impaired IL-18 signaling may be causally associated with a lower risk of cardioembolic stroke, possibly mediated through prevention of cardiac re-modelling, heart failure and atrial fibrillation. IL-18 represents a potential target for anti-inflammatory therapy in stroke and CVD that warrants further investigation in clinical trials. Clinical Perspective What is new? Using multi-omic data, this Mendelian Randomization study provides evidence that IL-18 lowering is associated with a lower lifetime risk of cardiac remodeling, heart failure, and cardioembolic stroke. A significant proportion of the protective effect of impaired IL-18 signaling on cardioembolic stroke was mediated through a reduced risk of AF. What are the clinical implications? These data provide compelling evidence that the IL-18 signaling pathway is a promising druggable target for the treatment of heart failure and the prevention of cardioembolic stroke. Several monoclonal antibodies targeting IL-18 are in development for the treatment of atopic dermatitis and could be considered for re-purposing for cardiovascular disease.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".