Human Brucellosis in Iraq: Spatiotemporal Data Analysis From 2007-2018
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Brucellosis is both endemic and enzootic in Iraq, resulting in long-term morbidity for humans as well as economic loss. No previous study of the spatial and temporal patterns of brucellosis in Iraq was done to identify potential clustering of cases. Objective: This study aims to detect the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in Iraq and identify any changes that occurred from 2007 to 2018. Methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted using secondary data from the Surveillance Section at the Communicable Diseases Control Center, Public Health Directorate, Ministry of Health in Iraq. The trends of cases by sex and age group from 2007 to 2018 were displayed. The seasonal distribution of the cases from 2007 to 2012 was graphed. We calculated the incidence of human brucellosis per district per year and used local Getis-Ord Gi* statistics to detect the spatial distribution of the data. The data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel and GeoDa software. Results: A total of 51,508 human brucellosis cases were reported during the 12-year study period, with some missing data for age groups. Human brucellosis persisted annually in Iraq across the study period with no specific temporal clustering of cases. In contrast, spatial clustering was predominant in northern Iraq. Conclusions: There were significant differences in the geographic distribution of brucellosis. The number of cases is the highest in the north and northeast regions of the country, which has borders with nearby countries. In addition, people in these areas depend more on locally made dairy products, which can be inadequately pasteurized. Despite the lack of significant temporal clustering of cases, the highest number of cases were reported during summer and spring. Considering these patterns when allocating resources to combat this disease, determining public health priorities, and planning prevention and control strategies is important.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".