Novel Methodology for Identifying the Occurrence of Ovulation by Estimating Core Body Temperature During Sleeping: Validity and Effectiveness Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Body temperature is the most-used noninvasive biomarker to determine menstrual cycle and ovulation. However, issues related to its low accuracy are still under discussion. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to improve the accuracy of identifying the presence or absence of ovulation within a menstrual cycle. We investigated whether core body temperature (CBT) estimation can improve the accuracy of temperature biphasic shift discrimination in the menstrual cycle. The study consisted of 2 parts: experiment 1 assessed the validity of the CBT estimation method, while experiment 2 focused on the effectiveness of the method in discriminating biphasic temperature shifts. METHODS: In experiment 1, healthy women aged between 18 and 40 years had their true CBT measured using an ingestible thermometer and their CBT estimated from skin temperature and ambient temperature measured during sleep in both the follicular and luteal phases of their menstrual cycles. This study analyzed the differences between these 2 measurements, the variations in temperature between the 2 phases, and the repeated measures correlation between the true and estimated CBT. Experiment 2 followed a similar methodology, but focused on evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of these 2 temperature measurement approaches (estimated CBT and traditional oral basal body temperature [BBT]) for identifying ovulatory cycles. This was performed using urine luteinizing hormone (LH) as the reference standard. Menstrual cycles were categorized based on the results of the LH tests, and a temperature shift was identified using a specific criterion called the "three-over-six rule." This rule and the nested design of the study facilitated the assessment of diagnostic measures, such as sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: The main findings showed that CBT estimated from skin temperature and ambient temperature during sleep was consistently lower than directly measured CBT in both the follicular and luteal phases of the menstrual cycle. Despite this, the pattern of temperature variation between these phases was comparable for both the estimated and true CBT measurements, suggesting that the estimated CBT accurately reflected the cyclical variations in the true CBT. Significantly, the CBT estimation method showed higher sensitivity and specificity for detecting the occurrence of ovulation than traditional oral BBT measurements, highlighting its potential as an effective tool for reproductive health monitoring. The current method for estimating the CBT provides a practical and noninvasive method for monitoring CBT, which is essential for identifying biphasic shifts in the BBT throughout the menstrual cycle. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that the estimated CBT derived from skin temperature and ambient temperature during sleep accurately captures variations in true CBT and is more accurate in determining the presence or absence of ovulation than traditional oral BBT measurements. This method holds promise for improving reproductive health monitoring and understanding of menstrual cycle dynamics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".