Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Uncovered Interest Parity theory, predicated on perfect capital mobility and a floating exchange rate regime, faces challenges in real-world contexts marked by capital restrictions and diverse exchange rate regimes. This research investigates the validity of the UIP hypothesis in selected OECD countries, considering the role of capital control and de facto exchange rate regimes. By analyzing annual and monthly data, including immediate rates, short-term borrowing rates, and 10-year government bond rate differentials, several panel estimation techniques and alternative empirical models are employed. The results are robust to sub-sample analyses, alternative specifications of the empirical model, and different estimation methods. The study provides evidence supporting the UIP, particularly for immediate and short-term interest rates. The empirical examination underscores the necessity of accounting for the de facto floating exchange rate regime and capital flow restrictions when testing the UIP model. Consequently, the UIP hypothesis moves beyond being a theoretical fallacy and emerges as empirically verifiable, holding significant implications for policymakers and advancing the understanding of international finance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".