Leveraging the ETAS model to forecast mining microseismicity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
SUMMARY Mining operations result in changes of the subsurface stress field that can lead to the occurrence of microseismic events. The development of strategies for forecasting and avoidance of significant events is crucial for safe and efficient operations of mines. One such example, discussed here is the observed induced microseismicity in soft rock potash mines. It is primarily driven by the rock excavations but can also be triggered by preceding events or can result from the delayed effects of plastic creep of soft rocks. Therefore, it is important from seismic hazard assessment and risk mitigation points of view to understand the statistical aspects of microseismicity in potash or other types of mines. In this study, the temporal evolution of the induced microseismicity from a potash mine in Saskatchewan is analysed and modelled. Specifically, the epidemic type aftershock sequence model is used to approximate the occurrence rate of the induced mining microseismicity. The estimated parameters signify that the microseismicity displays swarm-type characteristics with limited inter-event triggering. Moreover, the Bayesian predictive framework is used to compute the probabilities of the occurrences of the largest expected events above a certain magnitude for prescribed forecasting time intervals during the evolution of the sequence. This approach for computing the probabilities allows one to incorporate fully the uncertainties of the model parameters. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution are used to generate parameter chains to quantify their variability. Furthermore, several statistical tests are conducted to assess the credibility of the obtained retrospective forecasts compared to the observed microseismicity. The obtained results show that the developed approach can accurately forecast the number of events and intensity of the sequence. It also provides a framework for computing the probabilities for the largest expected events.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".