Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 KP.3.1.1 variant
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 JN.1 variant (BA.2.86.1.1), arising from BA.2.86.1 with spike protein (S) substitution S:L455S, outcompeted the previously predominant XBB lineages by the beginning of 2024. Subsequently, JN.1 subvariants including KP.2 (JN.1.11.1.2) and KP.3 (JN.1.11.1.3), which acquired additional S substitutions e.g., S:R346T, S:F456L, and S:Q493E, have emerged concurrently. Thereafter, JN.1 subvariants, such as LB.1 (JN.1.9.2.1), KP.2.3 (JN.1.11.1.2.3), and KP.3.1.1 (JN.1.11.1.3.1.1), which convergently acquired a deletion of Serine at the 31st position in S (S:S31del) in addition to the above substitutions, have emerged and spread as of June 2024. We recently reported the virological features of JN.1 subvariants including KP.2, KP.3, LB.1, and KP.2.3.2,3 Here, we investigated the virological properties of KP.3.1.1. First, we estimated the relative effective reproduction number (Re) of KP.3.1.1 using a Bayesian multinomial logistic model4 based on genome surveillance data from Spain, the USA, France, Canada, and the UK, where this variant has spread as of June 2024. In Spain, the Re of KP.3.1.1 is over 1.2-fold higher than that of JN.1 and even higher than those of KP.2, KP.3, LB.1, and KP.2.3. Additionally, the other countries under investigation herein show higher Re for KP.3.1.1. However, it must be noted there is the possibility of overestimation in these countries due to more limited KP.3.1.1 sequence numbers. These results suggest that KP.3.1.1 will spread worldwide along with other JN.1 sublineages. We then assessed the virological properties of KP.3.1.1 using pseudoviruses. The pseudovirus of KP.3.1.1 had significantly higher infectivity than that of KP.3. Neutralization of KP.3.1.1 was tested using i) convalescent sera after breakthrough infection (BTI) with XBB.1.5 or EG.5, ii) convalescent sera after the infection with HK.3 or JN.1, and iii) sera after monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccination. The 50% neutralization titer (NT50) against KP.3.1.1 was significantly lower than KP.3 (1.4–1.6-fold) in all four groups of convalescent sera tested. KP.3.1.1 also showed a 1.3-fold lower NT50 against XBB.1.5 vaccine sera than KP.3. Moreover, KP.3.1.1 showed stronger resistance with a 1.3-fold lower NT50 with statistical significances to the convalescent sera infected with EG.5 and HK.3 than KP.2.3. Altogether, KP.3.1.1 exhibited a higher Re, higher pseudovirus infectivity, and higher neutralization evasion than KP.3. These results align with our recent report that the JN.1 subvariants with S:S31del (e.g., KP.2.3 and LB.1) exhibited enhanced Re and immune evasion compared to the other JN.1 subvariants without S:S31del (e.g., JN.1, KP.2, and KP.3), highlighting the evolutionary significance of S:S31del in the JN.1 lineages.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".