Theory of Change for Building Stronger Wildlife Health Surveillance Systems Globally
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases that infect wildlife, such as African swine fever, avian influenza, and SARS-CoV-2, have highlighted the necessity for wildlife health surveillance (WHS) due to their direct and indirect impacts on wildlife species, ecosystems, domestic animals, and human health. While global policies and guidelines exist, a critical gap remains in local-to-national implementation of WHS systems. A group of local, national, and global actors in WHS have formed a working group to address this gap. Methods and Findings: The working group reports on a theory of change (ToC) developed to implement WHS from local to global scales. Through brainstorming, plenary exercise, and building on peer-reviewed science and existing surveillance systems, we identified six transformative pathways to be implemented via collaborations across scales and contexts: mindset change, policy and investment, user-driven science, user-driven technologies, capacity enhancement, and mobilization of a global community of practice. Interpretation: This ToC serves as a roadmap to develop effective WHS systems that support adaptive management and implementation. WHS is fundamental to understanding the impacts of health threats to biodiversity and human and domestic animal health. This ToC presents an approach to operationalize integration of wildlife health into collaborative One Health surveillance. Funding: The Science for Nature and People Partnership.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.034 | 0.034 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.030 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.010 | 0.011 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Research integrity | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.012 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".