15-Gene Expression Profile and <i>PRAME</i> as Integrated Prognostic Test for Uveal Melanoma: First Report of Collaborative Ocular Oncology Group Study No. 2 (COOG2.1)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE Validated and accurate prognostic testing is critical for precision medicine in uveal melanoma (UM). Our aims were to (1) prospectively validate an integrated prognostic classifier combining a 15-gene expression profile (15-GEP) and PRAME RNA expression and (2) identify clinical variables that enhance the prognostic accuracy of the 15-GEP/ PRAME classifier. MATERIALS AND METHODS This study included 1,577 patients with UM of the choroid and/or ciliary body who were enrolled in the Collaborative Ocular Oncology Group Study Number 2 (COOG2) and prospectively monitored across 26 North American centers. Test results for 15-GEP (class 1 or class 2) and PRAME expression status (negative or positive) were available for all patients. The primary end point was metastasis-free survival (MFS). RESULTS 15-GEP was class 1 in 1,082 (68.6%) and class 2 in 495 (31.4%) patients. PRAME status was negative in 1,106 (70.1%) and positive in 471 (29.9%) patients. Five-year MFS was 95.6% (95% CI, 93.9 to 97.4) for class 1/ PRAME (–), 80.6% (95% CI, 73.9 to 87.9) for class 1/ PRAME (+), 58.3% (95% CI, 51.1 to 66.4) for class 2/ PRAME (–), and 44.8% (95% CI, 37.9 to 52.8) for class 2/ PRAME (+). By multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, 15-GEP was the most important independent predictor of MFS (hazard ratio [HR], 5.95 [95% CI, 4.43 to 7.99]; P < .001), followed by PRAME status (HR, 1.82 [95% CI, 1.42 to 2.33]; P < .001). The only clinical variable demonstrating additional prognostic value was tumor diameter. CONCLUSION In the largest prospective multicenter prognostic biomarker study performed to date in UM to our knowledge, the COOG2 study validated the superior prognostic accuracy of the integrated 15-GEP/ PRAME classifier over 15-GEP alone and clinical prognostic variables. Tumor diameter was found to be the only clinical variable to provide additional prognostic information. This prognostic classifier provides an advanced resource for risk-adjusted metastatic surveillance and adjuvant trial stratification in patients with UM.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.019 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".