Implicit Optimization Bias of Next-Token Prediction in Linear Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We initiate an investigation into the optimization properties of next-token prediction (NTP), the dominant training paradigm for modern language models. Specifically, we study the structural properties of the solutions selected by gradient-based optimizers among the many possible minimizers of the NTP objective. By framing NTP as cross-entropy minimization across distinct contexts, each tied with a sparse conditional probability distribution across a finite vocabulary of tokens, we introduce "NTP-separability conditions" that enable reaching the data-entropy lower bound. With this setup, and focusing on linear models with fixed context embeddings, we characterize the optimization bias of gradient descent (GD): Within the data subspace defined by the sparsity patterns of distinct contexts, GD selects parameters that equate the logits' differences of in-support tokens to their log-odds. In the orthogonal subspace, the GD parameters diverge in norm and select the direction that maximizes a margin specific to NTP. These findings extend previous research on implicit bias in one-hot classification to the NTP setting, highlighting key differences and prompting further research into the optimization and generalization properties of NTP, irrespective of the specific architecture used to generate the context embeddings.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.030 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".