Empirical analysis of the twin deficits hypothesis in the republic of North Macedonia
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The twin deficits hypothesis is widely considered one of the most frequently employed phenomena in the economic literature. An econometric analysis of the twin deficit hypothesis is of special importance in understanding the perspective on macroeconomic stability in the Republic of North Macedonia. This paper aims to empirically test the validity of this hypothesis in the Republic of North Macedonia. To do so, we utilized quarterly data on Macedonia’s budget deficit, the current account deficit, exchange rate, interest rate, GDP, government expenditure, and money supply, starting from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Through the application of the ARDL model, the study found that between the variables taken into analysis, there exists a short and long-run relationship. More specifically exchange rate, government expenditure, and GDP result in improvement on the budget deficit, both in the short run and long run. While current account deficit, interest rate, and money supply result in worsening the budget deficit, both in the short run and long run.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it