Anthracycline-induced cardiovascular toxicity: validation of the Heart Failure Association and International Cardio-Oncology Society risk score
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Baseline cardiovascular toxicity risk stratification is critical in cardio-oncology. The Heart Failure Association (HFA) and International Cardio-Oncology Society (ICOS) score aims to assess this risk but lacks real-life validation. This study validates the HFA-ICOS score for anthracycline-induced cardiovascular toxicity. METHODS: Anthracycline-treated patients in the CARDIOTOX registry (NCT02039622) were stratified by the HFA-ICOS score. The primary endpoint was symptomatic or moderate to severe asymptomatic cancer therapy-related cardiac dysfunction (CTRCD), with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality as secondary endpoints. RESULTS: The analysis included 1066 patients (mean age 54 ± 14 years; 81.9% women; 24.5% ≥65 years). According to the HFA-ICOS criteria, 571 patients (53.6%) were classified as low risk, 333 (31.2%) as moderate risk, 152 (14.3%) as high risk, and 10 (0.9%) as very high risk. Median follow-up was 54.8 months (interquartile range 24.6-81.8). A total of 197 patients (18.4%) died, and 718 (67.3%) developed CTRCD (symptomatic: n = 45; moderate to severe asymptomatic: n = 24; and mild asymptomatic: n = 649). Incidence rates of symptomatic or moderate to severe symptomatic CTRCD and all-cause mortality significantly increased with HFA-ICOS score [hazard ratio 28.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.33-88.5; P < .001, and hazard ratio 7.43, 95% CI 3.21-17.2; P < .001) for very high-risk patients. The predictive model demonstrated good calibration (Brier score 0.04, 95% CI 0.03-0.05) and discrimination (area under the curve 0.78, 95% CI 0.70-0.82; Uno's C-statistic 0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.84) for predicting symptomatic or severe/moderate asymptomatic CTRCD at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: The HFA-ICOS score effectively categorizes patients by cardiovascular toxicity risk and demonstrates strong predictive ability for high-risk anthracycline-related cardiovascular toxicity and all-cause mortality.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".