Consolidation Enhances Sequential Multistep Anticipation but Diminishes Access to Perceptual Features
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Many experiences unfold predictably over time. Memory for these temporal regularities enables anticipation of events multiple steps into the future. Because temporally predictable events repeat over days, weeks, and years, we must maintain—and potentially transform—memories of temporal structure to support adaptive behavior. We explored how individuals build durable models of temporal regularities to guide multistep anticipation. Healthy young adults (Experiment 1: N = 99, age range = 18–40 years; Experiment 2: N = 204, age range = 19–40 years) learned sequences of scene images that were predictable at the category level and contained incidental perceptual details. Individuals then anticipated upcoming scene categories multiple steps into the future, immediately and at a delay. Consolidation increased the efficiency of anticipation, particularly for events further in the future, but diminished access to perceptual features. Further, maintaining a link-based model of the sequence after consolidation improved anticipation accuracy. Consolidation may therefore promote efficient and durable models of temporal structure, thus facilitating anticipation of future events.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".