Investigating the trajectory of functional disability in systemic sclerosis: group-based trajectory modelling of the Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To identify the trajectories and clinical associations of functional disability in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS) participants meeting ACR/EULAR criteria for SSc recruited within 5 years of disease onset, with ≥2 Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI) scores were included. Group based trajectory modelling (GBTM) was used to identify the number and shape of HAQ-DI trajectories. Between group comparisons were made using the chi-squared test, two-sample t-test or Wilcoxon rank-sum test as appropriate. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify features associated with trajectory group membership. Survival analyses were performed using Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazard modelling. RESULTS: We identified two HAQ-DI trajectory groups within 426 ASCS participants with incident SSc: low-stable disability (n=221, 52%), and high-increasing disability (n=205, 48%). Participants with high-increasing disability were older at disease onset, more likely to have diffuse SSc (dcSSc), cardiopulmonary disease, multimorbidity, digital ulcers, and gastrointestinal involvement (all p≤0.01), as was use of immunosuppression (p<0.01). Multimorbidity was associated with high-increasing trajectory group membership (OR3.1, 95%CI1.1-8.8, p=0.04); independently, multiple SSc features were also strongly associated including dcSSc (OR2.3, 95%CI1.3-4.2, p<0.01), proximal weakness (OR7.3, 95%CI2.0-27.1, p<0.01) and joint contractures (OR2.7, 95%CI1.3-5.3, p<0.01). High-increasing physical disability was associated with an almost two-fold increased risk of mortality (HR1.9, 95%CI1.0-3.8, p=0.05), and higher symptom burden. CONCLUSIONS: Two trajectories of functional disability in SSc were identified. Those with high-increasing functional disability had a distinct clinical phenotype and worse survival compared to those with low-stable functional disability. These data highlight the pervasive nature of physical disability in SSc, and its prognostic importance.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".