Headwinds to Understanding Stress Response Physiology: A Systematic Review Reveals Mismatch between Real and Simulated Marine Heatwaves
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Laboratory experiments have long been used to guide predictions of organismal stress in response to our rapidly changing climate. However, the ability to simulate real world conditions in the laboratory can be a major barrier to prediction accuracy, creating obstacles to efforts informing ecosystem conservation and management. Capitalizing on an extensive experimental literature of coral bleaching physiology, we performed a systematic review of the literature and assembled a database to identify the methods being used to measure coral bleaching in heating experiments and assess how closely heating experiments resembled marine heatwaves (MHWs) on coral reefs. Observations of the maximum photochemical yield of Photosystem II ( F V / F M ), though not a direct measure of bleaching, vastly outnumbered Symbiodiniaceae density and chlorophyll (μg cm -2 , pg cell -1 ) observations in the available literature, indicating the widespread misuse of F V / F M as a proxy for coral bleaching. Laboratory studies in our database used significantly higher maximum temperatures, degree heating times (∼ 1.7 ×) and heating rates (∼ 7.3 ×), and significantly shorter durations (∼ 1.5 ×), than MHWs on coral reefs. We then asked whether exposure differences between lab and reef altered the relationship between coral bleaching and heating metrics using the example of hormesis, the biphasic dose response wherein low to moderate doses elicit some benefit, while high doses are deleterious. We fit curves on the data both with and without ecologically relevant heating metrics and found hormetic curves in some response variables were altered with the exclusion of exposures that fell outside of the bounds of MHWs on coral reefs. Differences between lab exposures and real-world MHWs were large enough to alter the relationships, indicating a high likelihood of prediction error. We recommend laboratory-based studies of coral bleaching use ecologically relevant exposures to improve our predictions of the coral physiological response to our rapidly warming oceans.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.031 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.013 | 0.012 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".