Electoral Accountability in a Multilevel Governance Context: Economic Voting and Gubernatorial Support in Latin America
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We know a great deal about how individual and institutional factors combine to explain economic voting in well-established democracies, but much less is known about these dynamics in younger democracies and even less so in subnational contexts. Using survey and fiscal data from four federal Latin American countries and adopting a multilevel estimation strategy, we examine voters’ ability to blame and reward governors for the state of the economy (state and national levels) while simultaneously accounting for the states’ level of fiscal centralization and partisan dynamics between the two levels. We find that support for governors is weakly associated with the economy but more strongly so with presidential approval. More importantly, we find that fiscal centralization and partisan dynamics moderate the association between the economy, presidential approval, and support for governors. Little support is found, however, for the clarity of responsibility argument in multilevel governance in these Latin American countries.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it