Analysis of bigmouth buffalo Ictiobus cyprinellus spawning phenology in Minnesota reveals 50-year recruitment failure and conservation concern
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The bigmouth buffalo Ictiobus cyprinellus (Catostomidae) is a freshwater fish native to North America that is known for its longevity. During the 1970s, the bigmouth buffalo was recorded as declining in Canada, Minnesota, and North Dakota and became a protected species in Canada. In the USA, population declines are exacerbated by wasteful recreational bowfishing, lack of fisheries management, and overall lack of knowledge. However, recent studies have revealed the exceptional lifespan of bigmouth buffalo, their negligible senescence, slow growth, delayed maturity, and episodic recruitment. Yet little is known about the spawning phenology of bigmouth buffalo, nor their age demographics in east central Minnesota. In this 2021-2023 study of bigmouth buffalo from Rice Lake National Wildlife Refuge we found that 99.7% (389 of 390) of the extant population hatched prior to 1972 despite annual spawning in Rice Lake. Moreover, recruitment success declined significantly since water control measures were established (1953). We found males arrive to spawning grounds with females but depart later, that both the midpoint and duration of spawn significantly vary across years, and that more massive females of the same age range invest disproportionately more in ovaries. Extensive post-spawn seining revealed bigmouth buffalo young-of-the-year in low numbers, but by mid-to-late summer they were no longer evident having likely succumbed to predation. Overall, these findings thoroughly reveal one of the oldest populations of vertebrate currently known (median age of 79 years as of 2024) and expose the stark vulnerability of a bigmouth buffalo population for which substantial recruitment has not occurred for more than six decades. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that the long-lived bigmouth buffalo is vulnerable, that a precautionary approach is immediately needed, and that the unlimited and unregulated kill-fishery be closed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".