Short-Term Campus Load Forecasting Using CNN-Based Encoder–Decoder Network with Attention
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Short-term load forecasting is a challenging research problem and has a tremendous impact on electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. A robust forecasting algorithm can help power system operators to better tackle the ever-changing electric power demand. This paper presents a novel deep neural network for short-term electric load forecasting for the St. John’s campus of Memorial University of Newfoundland (MUN). The electric load data are obtained from the Memorial University of Newfoundland and combined with metrological data from St. John’s. This dataset is used to formulate a multivariate time-series forecasting problem. A novel deep learning algorithm is presented, consisting of a 1D Convolutional Neural Network, which is followed by an encoder–decoder-based network with attention. The input used for this model is the electric load consumption and metrological data, while the output is the hourly prediction of the next day. The model is compared with Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM)-based Recurrent Neural Network. A CNN-based encoder–decoder model without attention is also tested. The proposed model shows a lower mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and higher R2 score. These evaluation metrics show an improved performance compared to GRU and LSTM-based RNNs as well as the CNN encoder–decoder model without attention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".