Investigation of health care use and a possible prodrome before the first attack in NMOSD and MOGAD
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prodromal phases are well recognized in many inflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases, including multiple sclerosis. We evaluated the possibility of a prodrome in aquaporin-4 antibody positive (AQP4+) neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody disease (MOGAD) using health administrative data. METHODS: We investigated individuals with AQP4 + NMOSD and MOGAD, confirmed by medical chart review, in Ontario, Canada. Each NMOSD and MOGAD participant was matched 1:5 to general population controls by sex, birth year, immigrant status, and region. Total outpatient visits and hospitalizations were compared in the 5 years preceding the incident attack in multivariable negative binomial models. RESULTS: We identified 96 people with AQP4 + NMOSD, matched to 479 controls, and 61 people with MOGAD, matched to 303 controls. In the 5 years preceding the incident attack, health care use was elevated for outpatient visits and hospitalizations for the NMOSD cohort (adjusted rate ratio (aRR): 1.47; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.25-1.73; aRR: 1.67; 95% CI: 1.19-2.36, respectively) but not for MOGAD. Rate ratios steadily increased in NMOSD for outpatient visits in the 2 years preceding the incident attack. CONCLUSION: Our findings support a prodromal phase preceding clinical onset of AQP4 + NMOSD. Earlier recognition and management of NMOSD patients may be possible.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".