Investigation of health care use and a possible prodrome before the first attack in NMOSD and MOGAD
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prodromal phases are well recognized in many inflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases, including multiple sclerosis. We evaluated the possibility of a prodrome in aquaporin-4 antibody positive (AQP4+) neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody disease (MOGAD) using health administrative data. METHODS: We investigated individuals with AQP4 + NMOSD and MOGAD, confirmed by medical chart review, in Ontario, Canada. Each NMOSD and MOGAD participant was matched 1:5 to general population controls by sex, birth year, immigrant status, and region. Total outpatient visits and hospitalizations were compared in the 5 years preceding the incident attack in multivariable negative binomial models. RESULTS: We identified 96 people with AQP4 + NMOSD, matched to 479 controls, and 61 people with MOGAD, matched to 303 controls. In the 5 years preceding the incident attack, health care use was elevated for outpatient visits and hospitalizations for the NMOSD cohort (adjusted rate ratio (aRR): 1.47; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.25-1.73; aRR: 1.67; 95% CI: 1.19-2.36, respectively) but not for MOGAD. Rate ratios steadily increased in NMOSD for outpatient visits in the 2 years preceding the incident attack. CONCLUSION: Our findings support a prodromal phase preceding clinical onset of AQP4 + NMOSD. Earlier recognition and management of NMOSD patients may be possible.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".