Europe has the fastest Ironman race courses and the fastest Ironman age group triathletes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The majority of participants in Ironman triathlon races are age group athletes. We have extensive knowledge about recreational athletes' training and competition participation. Nonetheless, Ironman age group triathletes must achieve fast race times to qualify for the Ironman World Championship in Hawaii. They can, therefore, benefit from knowing where the fastest Ironman racecourses in the world are. The aim of the present study was to investigate where the fastest Ironman racecourses for age group triathletes are located in the world. Data from 677,702 Ironman age group finishers' records (544,963 from men and 132,739 from women) originating from 228 countries and participating in 444 events across 66 different Ironman race locations between 2002 and 2022 were analyzed. Data was analyzed through traditional descriptive statistics and with machine learning regression models. Four algorithms were tested (Random Forest Regressor, XG Boost Regressor, Cat Boot Regressor, and Decision Tree Regressor). The models used gender, age group, country of origin, environmental factors (average air and water temperatures), and the event location as independent variables to predict the final overall race time. Despite the majority of successful Ironman age group triathletes originating from the USA (274,553), followed by athletes from the United Kingdom (55,410) and Canada (38,264), these countries exhibited average overall race times that were significantly slower compared to the fastest countries. Most of the triathletes competed in Ironman Wisconsin (38,545), followed by Ironman Florida (38,157) and Ironman Lake Placid (34,341). The fastest overall race times were achieved in Ironman Copenhagen (11.68 ± 1.38 h), followed by Ironman Hawaii (11.72 ± 1.86 h), Ironman Barcelona (11.78 ± 1.43 h), Ironman Florianópolis (11.80 ± 1.52 h), Ironman Frankfurt (12.03 ± 1.38 h) and Ironman Kalmar (12.08 ± 1.47 h). The fastest athletes originated from Belgium (11.48 ± 1.47 h), followed by athletes from Denmark (11.59 ± 1.40 h), Switzerland (11.62 ± 1.49 h), Austria (11.68 ± 1.50), Finland (11.68 ± 1.40 h) and Germany (11.74 ± 15.1 h). Flat running and cycling courses were associated with faster overall race times. Three of the predictive models identified the 'country' and 'age group' variables as the most important predictors. Environmental characteristics showed the lowest influence regarding the other variables. The origin of the athlete was the most predictive variable whereas environmental characteristics showed the lowest influence. Flat cycling and flat running courses were associated with faster overall race times. The fastest overall race times were achieved mainly in European races such as Ironman Copenhagen, Ironman Hawaii, Ironman Barcelona, Ironman Florianópolis, Ironman Frankfurt and Ironman Kalmar. The fastest triathletes originated from European countries such as Belgium, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, Finland, and Germany.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".