SP4.14 - Mild acute biliary pancreatitis: still a surgical disease. A post-hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aims The current standard of care for mild acute biliary pancreatitis (MABP) involves early laparoscopic cholecystectomy (ELC) reducing the risk of early recurrence. The MANCTRA-1 project disclosed a discrepancy in translating this evidence into clinical practice, estimating a 35 to 70% probability of narrowing this gap within 2025. This study assesses the safety of suboptimal ELC implementation in MABP, looking for risk factors for recurrent acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) in patients awaiting interval cholecystectomy after an uneventful episode of MABP. Methods We conducted a post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 registry. Clinicaltrials.gov ID NCT04747990. We included MABP patients who did not undergo ELC during the index hospitalization, excluding those who experienced disease-related complications. The primary outcome was the 30-day hospital readmission rate due to ABP recurrence. We performed univariable and multivariable logistic regression to identify risk factors for 30-day ABP recurrence. Results Between January 2019 and December 2020, a total of 2,253 MABP patients from 150 centres were included. The 30-day readmission rate due to ABP recurrence was 6%. The multivariable logistic regression showed that admission to a medical ward (internal medicine or gastroenterology) odds ratio (OR) 1.62 (95%[CI] 1.1;2.37), p=0.01 was an independent risk factor for 30-day ABP recurrence. Conclusion Our real-world analysis provides valuable insights to manage MABP, particularly in centres where ELC strategies cannot be fully implemented due to organizational and clinical constraints. Despite the admitting ward, it underscores the importance of timely access to surgical care in reducing the risk of early recurrence, disclosing the need to implement surgical consultation pathways in ABP care bundles.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".