Case fatality among people with drug-susceptible TB enrolled in a private health sector TB treatment support program in Bihar, India during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Experiencing 27% of the global tuberculosis (TB) burden, India's TB epidemic is the largest in the world. Due to COVID-19-related disruptions to TB programs, India has also seen the largest drop in TB case notifications of any country globally. We estimated case fatality among people treated for TB in India during the pandemic and compared these to pre-pandemic estimates. A random sample of 4,000 adults enrolled in World Health Partners (WHP), a private sector TB treatment support program (enrolling only people with drug-susceptible TB) in Bihar, India in the first year of COVID-19 (Mar 2020-Mar 2021) were contacted via phone to collect information on TB case fatality and other relevant covariates. Inverse probability of selection (IPS) weighting was used to obtain selection-bias-corrected in-treatment and post-treatment case fatality estimates. Covariates associated with (but not necessarily causal of) case fatality were identified by estimating adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) using the Cox proportional hazards model. WHP enrolled 19,826 adult drug-susceptible TB patients in the first year of COVID-19 (Mar 2020 to Mar 2021). Of our random sample of 4,000 patients, n = 2,962 (74.1%) answered the follow-up call. Unweighted and IPS-weighted in-treatment case fatality in the primary analysis were 6.12% (95%CI: 5.31-6.97%) and 6.07% (95%CI: 5.22-6.93%), respectively. Post-treatment case fatality estimates were 0.97% (95%CI: 0.61-1.33%) (unweighted) and 1.27% (95%CI: 0.79-1.79) (IPS-weighted). Our IPS-weighted estimates for in-treatment and post-treatment case fatality were similar to pre-pandemic IPS-weighted estimates (in-treatment: 7.27%, 95%CI: 5.97%- 8.49% and 12 months post-treatment: 1.23, 95%CI: 0.75-1.73). Although not higher than pre-pandemic estimates, the observed case fatality in this private sector cohort of people treated for drug-susceptible TB during COVID-19 in Bihar, India is above the level needed to reach the 2025 and 2030 End TB Strategy targets for reductions in TB deaths, underlining the extent of pandemic-related setbacks to TB elimination.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".