Optimal Learning and Management of Threatened Species
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Amid an unprecedented loss of biodiversity, a pressing issue is how to improve the efficiency of conservation with limited resources and information. Collecting data on species with a small population is costly and time consuming, and many high-stakes decisions need to be made based on limited data. We develop a partially observable Markov decision processes model with unknown parameters to jointly optimize the information collection and protection efforts for threatened species. The model takes into account uncertainties about the state, detectability, and dynamics of the species, and it adaptively adjusts the efforts of surveying and protection in real time. Although the standard formulation is intractable, we exploit the structure of ecological problems to identify a hybrid belief state in low dimensions, and we reformulate the stochastic dynamic program as a piecewise deterministic optimal control problem. This enables us to obtain structural insights into the optimal policy (some are in closed form) and find a near-optimal approximate policy with performance guarantee. In certain situations, areas where the species has never been found may be more likely to contain the species than areas where it has been previously found. We also conduct a case study on the conservation of the Hainan gibbon, the rarest primate species, in which we extend the model to optimize the spatiotemporal allocation of limited resources. This paper was accepted by Chung Piaw Teo, optimization. Funding: This work was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada [Grant RGPIN-2019-05671]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.01753 .
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".