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Record W4402616598 · doi:10.1017/s1748499524000198

Generalized Poisson random variable: its distributional properties and actuarial applications

2024· article· en· W4402616598 on OpenAlex
Pouya Faroughi, Shu Li, Jiandong Ren

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.

Bibliographic record

VenueAnnals of Actuarial Science · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicStatistical Distribution Estimation and Applications
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Prince Edward IslandWestern University
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsPoisson distributionMathematicsNegative binomial distributionRandom variableBinomial (polynomial)Conditional probability distributionApplied mathematicsZero-inflated modelTransformation (genetics)Compound Poisson distributionDistribution (mathematics)Binomial distributionConditional expectationEconometricsPoisson regressionStatisticsMathematical analysis

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Generalized Poisson (GP) distribution was introduced in Consul & Jain ((1973). Technometrics , 15(4), 791–799.). Since then it has found various applications in actuarial science and other areas. In this paper, we focus on the distributional properties of GP and its related distributions. In particular, we study the distributional properties of distributions in the $\mathcal{H}$ family, which includes GP and generalized negative binomial distributions as special cases. We demonstrate that the moment and size-biased transformations of distributions within the $\mathcal{H}$ family remain in the same family, which significantly extends the results presented in Ambagaspitiya & Balakrishnan ((1994). ASTINBulletin: the Journal of the IAA , 24(2), 255–263.) and Ambagaspitiya ((1995). Insurance Mathematics and Economics , 2(16), 107–127.). Such findings enable us to provide recursive formulas for evaluating risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk and conditional tail expectation of the compound GP distributions. In addition, we show that the risk measures can be calculated by making use of transform methods, such as fast Fourier transform. In fact, the transformation method showed a remarkable time advantage over the recursive method. We numerically compare the risk measures of the compound sums when the primary distributions are Poisson and GP. The results illustrate the model risk for the loss frequency distribution.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.956
Threshold uncertainty score0.425

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.185
GPT teacher head0.404
Teacher spread0.219 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it