Small cyst size and lack of growth as negative predictors of malignant transformation in low‐risk intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: A systematic review and meta‐analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM: For branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) without worrisome features (WFs) or high-risk stigmata (HRS), current guidelines recommend surveillance. However, these intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMNs), especially the small and stable-sized ones, carry a low risk of malignant transformation. Our aim was to assess whether small cyst size and absence of rapid growth provide reassurance against the development of WFs/HRS and malignancy (high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or pancreatic cancer (PC)). METHODS: PubMed/Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Library and the Web of Science Core Collection were systematically searched from inception to May 2023 to identify studies investigating surveillance outcomes of low-risk BD-IPMNs. Studies assessing baseline cyst size and/or growth in relation to WFs/HRS and/or HGD/PC were included. The Newcastle-Ottawa scale tool was used to assess study quality. RESULTS: Of the 1937 identified manuscripts, 21 studies were eligible for inclusion. The quality of these studies was considered reasonable. A negative association between cyst size and WFs/HRS development was found in 11 out of 13 relevant studies, but only one out of nine studies reported a negative association between size and malignancy. Regarding cyst growth, four out of six studies described a negative association with the development of WFs/HRS, and all six reported a negative association with malignancy. The pooled relative risk (RR) of developing WFs/HRS or malignancy for cysts ≤15 mm was 0.37 (95% CI 0.25-0.57) and the RR of developing malignancy for cyst growth <2-2.5 mm/year was 0.04 (95% CI 0.02-0.09)). CONCLUSION: This systematic review and meta-analysis shows that small and stable-sized low-risk BD-IPMNs are associated with a markedly low progression rate, with stable cyst size being the most reassuring feature. Because of substantial heterogeneity in definitions and reported outcome measures, prospective studies are needed to confirm that surveillance of small and stable sized cyst can be de-intensified or even discontinued.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".