Ten‐year outcomes of a prospective population‐based incidence cohort of inflammatory bowel disease patients from Canterbury, New Zealand
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background and Aim: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a progressive condition where ongoing inflammation in the gastrointestinal tract can lead to complications such as strictures, and fistulae. The long-term outcomes of newly diagnosed patients under current medical therapy can be used to plan health service provision and guide patients. Methods: = 205). The medical records of these patients were followed for medication use, disease progression, hospitalization, surgery and mortality, in the 10 years since their diagnosis. Survival analysis and cox regression determined characteristics associated with earlier time to these outcomes. Results: Medical records of 184 IBD patients were able to be retrieved. Immunomodulators were used by 62% and biologics by 35%; hospitalization occurred for 42% and surgery for 15%. Montreal phenotype progression occurred for 21 and 7% of the cohort died. Younger age at diagnosis hazard ratio (HR) 2.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-4.0) and Crohn's disease HR 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.6) was associated with immunomodulator use. Younger age was also associated with biologic use HR 2.9 (95% CI 1.2-6.9). Male gender was associated with surgery HR 2.8 (95% CI 1.2-6.4). Perianal disease at diagnosis (14.7%) was associated with immunomodulator use HR 2.58 (95% CI 1.44-4.59) and Montreal phenotype progression HR 2.93 (95% CI 1.10-7.77). Conclusion: In the 10 years since diagnosis disease progression and treatment escalation occurred for most of this population-based cohort. Earlier intervention for patients with higher-risk characteristics may improve long-term outcomes reducing the burden on health systems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".