Colorectal cancer prevalence in faecal immunochemical test non-returners: potential for health inequality in symptomatic referral pathways
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to describe the faecal immunochemical test non-return rate of those referred with high-risk symptoms of colorectal cancer from primary care, and the clinical outcomes of the 'non-returners'. METHODS: From January 2019 to July 2021, patients referred to secondary care with symptoms suspicious of colorectal cancer and a referral priority of urgent or urgent suspicion of cancer were sent a faecal immunochemical test. All patients were investigated regardless of faecal immunochemical test return or result. Demographics and clinical outcomes such as colorectal cancer prevalence were compared between those who returned a faecal immunochemical test and non-returners. RESULTS: Of 7345 patients included in the study, 874 (11.9%) did not return a faecal immunochemical test. Non-returner characteristics included male sex (P = 0.040), younger age (median age 57 versus 65 years, P < 0.001), per rectal bleeding (P < 0.001) and lower socioeconomic status (median Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, 6 versus 7, P < 0.001) compared with those who returned a faecal immunochemical test. Of 6294 patients undergoing colorectal investigation, there was a greater prevalence of colorectal cancer (5.4% versus 3.6% P = 0.032) and significant bowel pathology than in the non-returners (15.3% versus 9.8%, P < 0.001). With a median follow-up of 25 months, the colorectal cancer prevalence for the entire 7345 cohort was equal between those who returned and did not return a faecal immunochemical test (3.2% versus 3.8%, P = 0.108). Of note, the non-returners diagnosed with colorectal cancer were younger (median age 64 versus 73 years, P < 0.001) and from a lower socioeconomic area (median Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 4 versus 7, P = 0.015) than faecal immunochemical test returners. CONCLUSION: Patients referred to secondary care, with symptoms suspicious of colorectal cancer, that did not return a faecal immunochemical test had a similar colorectal cancer prevalence to those that returned the test.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it