Colorectal cancer prevalence in faecal immunochemical test non-returners: potential for health inequality in symptomatic referral pathways
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to describe the faecal immunochemical test non-return rate of those referred with high-risk symptoms of colorectal cancer from primary care, and the clinical outcomes of the 'non-returners'. METHODS: From January 2019 to July 2021, patients referred to secondary care with symptoms suspicious of colorectal cancer and a referral priority of urgent or urgent suspicion of cancer were sent a faecal immunochemical test. All patients were investigated regardless of faecal immunochemical test return or result. Demographics and clinical outcomes such as colorectal cancer prevalence were compared between those who returned a faecal immunochemical test and non-returners. RESULTS: Of 7345 patients included in the study, 874 (11.9%) did not return a faecal immunochemical test. Non-returner characteristics included male sex (P = 0.040), younger age (median age 57 versus 65 years, P < 0.001), per rectal bleeding (P < 0.001) and lower socioeconomic status (median Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, 6 versus 7, P < 0.001) compared with those who returned a faecal immunochemical test. Of 6294 patients undergoing colorectal investigation, there was a greater prevalence of colorectal cancer (5.4% versus 3.6% P = 0.032) and significant bowel pathology than in the non-returners (15.3% versus 9.8%, P < 0.001). With a median follow-up of 25 months, the colorectal cancer prevalence for the entire 7345 cohort was equal between those who returned and did not return a faecal immunochemical test (3.2% versus 3.8%, P = 0.108). Of note, the non-returners diagnosed with colorectal cancer were younger (median age 64 versus 73 years, P < 0.001) and from a lower socioeconomic area (median Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 4 versus 7, P = 0.015) than faecal immunochemical test returners. CONCLUSION: Patients referred to secondary care, with symptoms suspicious of colorectal cancer, that did not return a faecal immunochemical test had a similar colorectal cancer prevalence to those that returned the test.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".