Deep Generative Models for Subgraph Prediction
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are important across different domains, such as social network analysis and recommendation systems, due to their ability to model complex relational data. This paper introduces subgraph queries as a new task for deep graph learning. Unlike traditional graph prediction tasks that focus on individual components like link prediction or node classification, subgraph queries jointly predict the components of a target subgraph based on evidence that is represented by an observed subgraph. For instance, a subgraph query can predict a set of target links and/or node labels. To answer subgraph queries, we utilize a probabilistic deep Graph Generative Model. Specifically, we inductively train a Variational Graph Auto-Encoder (VGAE) model, augmented to represent a joint distribution over links, node features and labels. Bayesian optimization is used to tune a weighting for the relative importance of links, node features and labels in a specific domain. We describe a deterministic and a sampling-based inference method for estimating subgraph probabilities from the VGAE generative graph distribution, without retraining, in zero-shot fashion. For evaluation, we apply the inference methods on a range of subgraph queries on six benchmark datasets. We find that inference from a model achieves superior predictive performance, surpassing independent prediction baselines with improvements in AUC scores ranging from 0.06 to 0.2 points, depending on the dataset.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it