Foreign portfolio investment, returns, exchange rate and inflation for Zimbabwe: A Granger Causality and EGARCH approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper analyses the causal relationship between Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), Equities Market Volatility, Exchange Rate and Inflation in Zimbabwe using a monthly time series data between October 2018 and November 2021. The granger causality model was used to present the link between the variables, and EGARCH was used to account for volatility and asymmetric effects on the variables. To incorporate innovations and responses into the Granger model, impulse response functions were used. Links between exchange rate and foreign portfolio investments were found. This only suggests that exchange rate volatility will vary when overseas investors purchase and sell financial securities on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE). In contrast, foreign investors sell local financial securities when local stock market returns are negative, leading to a significant outflow of foreign portfolio investment thereby reducing demand for currency. A significant causal relationship was found between the volatility of the exchange rate and stock market returns. It is assumed that stock market returns, and foreign portfolio investments are caused by fluctuating currency rates. The relationship between exchange rate and ZSE returns, and inflation was found based on Granger causality. This implies that stocks are not suitable for long-term investments that compensate investors for their diminished purchasing power. Policy makers should advise the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange to recommend a reduction in capital gains tax and withholding tax and this encourages investors to hold local equities for a long time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".