Two founder variants account for over 90% of pathogenic BRCA alleles in the Orkney and Shetland Isles in Scotland
Bibliographic record
Abstract
For breast and ovarian cancer risk assessment in the isolated populations of the Northern Isles of Orkney and Shetland (in Scotland, UK) and their diasporas, quantifying genetically drifted BRCA1 and BRCA2 pathogenic variants is important. Two actionable variants in these genes have reached much higher frequencies than in cosmopolitan UK populations. Here, we report a BRCA2 splice acceptor variant, c.517-2A>G, found in breast and ovarian cancer families from Shetland. We investigated the frequency and origin of this variant in a population-based research cohort of people of Shetland ancestry, VIKING I. The variant segregates with female breast and ovarian cancer in diagnosed cases and is classified as pathogenic. Exome sequence data from 2108 VIKING I participants with three or more Shetlandic grandparents was used to estimate the population prevalence of c.517-2A>G in Shetlanders. Nine VIKING I research volunteers carry this variant, on a shared haplotype (carrier frequency 0.4%). This frequency is ~130-fold higher than in UK Biobank, where the small group of carriers has a different haplotype. Records of birth, marriage and death indicate genealogical linkage of VIKING I carriers to a founder from the Isle of Whalsay, Shetland, similar to our observations for the BRCA1 founder variant c.5207T>C from Westray, Orkney. In total, 93.5% of pathogenic BRCA variant carriers in Northern Isles exomes are accounted for by these two drifted variants. We thus provide the scientific evidence of an opportunity for screening people of Orcadian and Shetlandic origins for each drifted pathogenic variant, particularly women with Westray or Whalsay ancestry.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".