Projecting the Benefit of Vericiguat in PARADIGM-HF and DAPA-HF populations: Insights from the VICTORIA Trial
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: The VICTORIA trial demonstrated a significant reduction in the primary composite outcome of heart failure (HF) hospitalization or cardiovascular death with vericiguat relative to placebo in high-risk HF. This study aimed to contextualize treatment effects of vericiguat in populations with varying risk profiles simulated from the PARADIGM-HF and DAPA-HF trials. METHODS: Subgroups of VICTORIA participants (n = 5050) were generated to simulate PARADIGM-HF and DAPA-HF trial populations. The PARADIGM-HF-eligible population excluded participants not meeting left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and minimal dose criteria and those with high predicted probability of run-in failure. The DAPA-HF-eligible population excluded those not meeting LVEF and eGFR criteria or with recent (<30 days) HF hospitalization. The time-to-first-event analysis was performed using an unadjusted Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: A total of 1982 (39.2%) and 2543 (50.4%) VICTORIA participants were respectively deemed eligible for PARADIGM-HF and DAPA-HF. Vericiguat was associated with numerically larger reductions in the primary outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death in populations simulated from PARADIGM-HF [hazard ratio (HR) 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72-0.99] and DAPA-HF (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.71-0.94) compared with the overall VICTORIA trial (HR 0.90). Significant reduction in HF hospitalization with vericiguat was also observed in the DAPA-HF-eligible population (HR 0.83, 95%CI 0.73-0.95) and with a nominal reduction in the PARADIGM-HF-eligible population (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.74-1.01). CONCLUSIONS: A trend towards enhanced efficacy of vericiguat in populations simulated from PARADIGM-HF and DAPA-HF was observed. These findings support further exploration of vericiguat in lower-risk HF populations as is being investigated in the ongoing VICTOR (a study of vericiguat in participants with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction) trial.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".