The Reward Positivity As a Predictor of First-Lifetime Onsets of Depression, Anxiety, and Suicidal Ideation in High-Risk Adolescents
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Reduced reward positivity (RewP), an electroencephalography marker elicited by feedback indicating reward, has been associated with an increased risk for depression during adolescence. However, the ability of the RewP to predict the first-lifetime onset of depressive disorders, as opposed to anxiety and suicidal ideation in high-risk populations, has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we examined whether the RewP predicts the first-lifetime onset of depression, anxiety, and suicidal ideation over 18 months in familial high-risk adolescents. METHODS: The sample included 145 adolescents (64.8% female), ages 11 to 17 years, who had at least 1 parent with a history of mood or anxiety disorders and completed baseline and at least 1 follow-up measurement. At baseline, the RewP was measured using a simple gambling task; current internalizing symptoms were assessed using self-report questionnaires; and the adolescent's psychiatric diagnoses were evaluated with diagnostic interviews. The same interview was administered to the adolescents again 9 months and 18 months later. RESULTS: Logistic regression models showed that higher RewP scores significantly predicted a lower likelihood of developing a first onset of major depressive disorder over 18 months, even after controlling for sex, age, and baseline internalizing symptoms. In contrast, the RewP did not significantly predict the first onset of anxiety disorders or suicidal ideation. CONCLUSIONS: A reduced RewP precedes the first onset of depression in high-risk adolescents, highlighting the RewP's predictive capability for depression risk in predisposed populations. A blunted RewP could complement self-reported symptoms in screening and prevention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".