EPID-27. THE INCIDENCE OF BRAIN METASTASIS IN GASTROINTESTINAL CANCER ACCORDING TO PRIMARY SITE AND STAGE: A 15-YEAR SINGLE INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers are a diverse group of cancers including pancreatic, gastric/gastroesophageal junction/esophageal (G/GEJ/E), colorectal (CRC), hepatocellular (HCC), biliary tract (BT), and anal origin cancers. The risk of developing brain metastasis (BrM) is not well characterized. The aim was to determine the incidence of BrM among all GI cancer patients at Princess Margaret Hospital (PM). We included patients diagnosed with GI cancer presenting from 2005-2020, captured prospectively in our institutional registry. These patients were cross-referenced with our radiotherapy database, where radiotherapy for brain metastases (BrM) was used as a proxy for the brain metastases development. Cumulative incidences (CI) of BrM diagnoses were calculated using death as a competing risk. Overall survival (OS) was estimated using the Kaplan Meier method. The registry accounted for 22,188 patients. The median age of the cohort was 64. Most common primary sites are CRC adenocarcinoma, pancreatic adenocarcinoma, G/GEJ/E adenocarcinoma were 31.52%/11.71%/10.25%. The 15-year CI for BrM for the entire cohort was 1.65%, and for CRC, small bowel, anal, pancreatic, G/GEJ/E, HCC, and BT cancers were 2.69%/2.49%/1.30%/0.5%/3.52%/ 0.05% /0.4% (p < 0.001) and Stage I-IV disease were 0.39%/0.81%/1.2%/3.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). 5 year CI for HER2 positive G/GEJ/E patients was 19.5%. Median OS from initial presentation for those with BrM was 25.13 months. On univariable analysis, chemotherapy receipt [HR 1.916, p < 0.001], Stage IV at presentation [HR 3.991, p < 0.001], and G/GEJ/E primary [HR 1.357, p < 0.001] predicted for higher risk of BrM. Multivariable analysis confirmed that receipt of chemotherapy and Stage IV disease predicted a higher risk for BrM and pancreatic, HCC, and BT cancers predicted for lower BrM. We observed that among patients diagnosed with GI cancers, Stage IV disease predicted higher risk for developing BrM and were more likely to receive chemotherapy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".