Identification of Patients With Congestive Heart Failure From the Electronic Health Records of Two Hospitals: Retrospective Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a common cause of hospital admissions. Medical records contain valuable information about CHF, but manual chart review is time-consuming. Claims databases (using International Classification of Diseases [ICD] codes) provide a scalable alternative but are less accurate. Automated analysis of medical records through natural language processing (NLP) enables more efficient adjudication but has not yet been validated across multiple sites. OBJECTIVE: We seek to accurately classify the diagnosis of CHF based on structured and unstructured data from each patient, including medications, ICD codes, and information extracted through NLP of notes left by providers, by comparing the effectiveness of several machine learning models. METHODS: We developed an NLP model to identify CHF from medical records using electronic health records (EHRs) from two hospitals (Mass General Hospital and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center; from 2010 to 2023), with 2800 clinical visit notes from 1821 patients. We trained and compared the performance of logistic regression, random forests, and RoBERTa models. We measured model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). These models were also externally validated by training the data on one hospital sample and testing on the other, and an overall estimated error was calculated using a completely random sample from both hospitals. RESULTS: The average age of the patients was 66.7 (SD 17.2) years; 978 (54.3%) out of 1821 patients were female. The logistic regression model achieved the best performance using a combination of ICD codes, medications, and notes, with an AUROC of 0.968 (95% CI 0.940-0.982) and an AUPRC of 0.921 (95% CI 0.835-0.969). The models that only used ICD codes or medications had lower performance. The estimated overall error rate in a random EHR sample was 1.6%. The model also showed high external validity from training on Mass General Hospital data and testing on Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center data (AUROC 0.927, 95% CI 0.908-0.944) and vice versa (AUROC 0.968, 95% CI 0.957-0.976). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed EHR-based phenotyping model for CHF achieved excellent performance, external validity, and generalization across two institutions. The model enables multiple downstream uses, paving the way for large-scale studies of CHF treatment effectiveness, comorbidities, outcomes, and mechanisms.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".