Picolensing as a Probe of Primordial Black Hole Dark Matter
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The gravitational-lensing parallax of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) is an intriguing probe of primordial black hole (PBH) dark matter in the asteroid-mass window, $2\times 10^{-16}M_{\odot} \lesssim M_{\text{PBH}} \lesssim 5 \times 10^{-12}M_{\odot}$. Recent work in the literature has shown exciting potential reach for this "picolensing" signal if a future space mission were to fly two x-/$γ$-ray detectors in the Swift/BAT class, with inter-spacecraft separation baselines on the order of the Earth-Moon distance. We revisit these projections with a view to understanding their robustness to various uncertainties related to GRBs. Most importantly, we investigate the impact of uncertainties in observed GRB angular sizes on reach projections for a future mission. Overall, we confirm that picolensing shows great promise to explore the asteroid-mass window; however, we find that previous studies may have been too optimistic with regard to the baselines required. Detector baselines on the order of at least the Earth-L2 distance would make such a mission more robust to GRB size uncertainties; baselines on the order of an astronomical unit (AU) would additionally enable reach that equals or exceeds existing microlensing constraints up to $M_{\text{PBH}} \sim 2 \times 10^{-8} M_{\odot}$.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".