Magnitude and Time-Course of Dementia Risk in Stroke Survivors
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Survivors of stroke are at high risk of dementia, but it is unclear whether this elevated risk is due to other confounding factors. We sought to determine the magnitude and time course of dementia risk after stroke with robust comparison with matched nonstroke populations in an entire province. METHODS: We conducted a population-wide analysis of over 15 million people in Ontario, Canada, between 2002 and 2022. Using linked administrative databases, we identified adults hospitalized for ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, or acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We performed 1:1 matching of people with stroke to all residents of Ontario (reference population) without stroke and separately to those with AMI, on age, sex, rural residence, neighborhood deprivation, and vascular comorbidities. We calculated the incident rate per 100 person-years and hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause dementia between 90 days after stroke and 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, and total follow-up and evaluated time-varying HRs. In sensitivity analyses, we adjusted for new stroke in follow-up and the cumulative number of health care encounters. RESULTS: Of 175,980 stroke survivors, 174,817 (99.3%) were successfully matched to people in the reference population and 151,673 (90%) were matched to those with AMI. Over a mean follow-up of 5.6 years (SD 4.71, maximum 20 years), a total of 32,621 (18.7%) were diagnosed with dementia after stroke compared with 21,929 (12.5%) in the Ontario reference population. The rate of dementia per 100 person-years over total follow-up time was higher after acute stroke compared with the reference population (3.34 vs 1.89) and the AMI cohort (3.19 vs 1.75). The HR of dementia was higher in those with stroke compared with the reference population (1.76, 95% CI 1.73-1.79) and the AMI cohort (1.82, 1.79-1.85). HRs varied across time, with over 2.5-fold increase in dementia risk within 1 year, decreasing to 1.5-fold at 5 years and 1.3-fold at 20 years after stroke. Estimates were similar in sensitivity analyses. Recurrent stroke was associated with 3-fold increased dementia risk. DISCUSSION: In this population-wide study, almost one-fifth of stroke survivors were diagnosed with dementia, with an 80% higher risk of dementia after robust matching to those without stroke. Targeted dementia prevention efforts in acute and chronic survivors of stroke are needed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".