The global burden of vascular intestinal diseases: results from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study and projections using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Vascular intestinal disease is a major health concern that often requires emergency surgery in patients with intestinal obstruction, perforation, or bowel necrosis. We aimed to provide data on the incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of vascular intestinal diseases from 1990 to 2021, thereby contributing to the development of health policies. METHODS: Using standardized methods from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease study, we analyzed the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of vascular intestinal disease from the perspectives of the sociodemographic index (SDI), regional, and country, along with the corresponding estimated annual percentage changes. Additionally, we used join-point regression to identify the key time points for disease burden changes. RESULTS: In 2021, a total of 169,432 cases [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 155,127-185,189] of vascular intestinal disease were identified worldwide. The age-standardized incidence rate decreased from 18.81 (95% UI: 16.07-21.73) in 1990 to 15.98 (95% UI: 13.99-19.10) in 2021. In 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate was 1.12/100,000 people (95% UI: 1.00-1.21). Over the 32-year period, the global DALYs rate declined by 1.44 (95% Confidence Interval: -1.55 to -1.34). Within the five SDI regions, the high-middle SDI areas recorded the peak standardized mortality rates in 2021. Regionally, the greatest increase in incidence occurred in North Africa and the Middle East. Canada recorded the greatest national incidence rate [58.35 (95% UI: 50.05-67.37)] in 2021 among 204 countries, while Russia exhibited the highest related mortality [5.64/100,000 people (95% UI: 5.19-6.11)] and DALYs rate [101.48/100,000 people (95% UI: 93.83-109.66)]. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a global decline in the burden of vascular intestinal disease from 1990 to 2021, significant regional and national disparities persist and the disease burden among the elderly has increased.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.014 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".