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Record W4405559077 · doi:10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765

Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making

2024· article· en· W4405559077 on OpenAlexaff
Jana Sillmann, Tim Raupach, Kirsten L. Findell, Markus G. Donat, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Lisa V. Alexander, Leonard Borchert, Pablo Borges de Amorim, Carlo Buontempo, Erich Fischer, Christian L. E. Franzke, Bin Guan, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Ed Hawkins, Daniela Jacob, Roché Mahon, Douglas Maraun, Monica Ainhorn Morrison, Benjamin Poschlod, Alex C. Ruane, Shampa Shampa, Tannecia S. Stephenson, Narelle van der Wel, Zhuo Wang, Xuebin Zhang, Josipa Županić

Bibliographic record

VenueFrontiers in Climate · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicClimate variability and models
Canadian institutionsPacific Institute for Climate SolutionsUniversity of Victoria
FundersHORIZON EUROPE Framework ProgrammeInstitute for Basic ScienceEuropean CommissionEarth Sciences DivisionSight Research UKNatural Environment Research CouncilFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São PauloUniversität HamburgDeutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
KeywordsClimate scienceClimate extremesClimate changeEnvironmental scienceEnvironmental planningRisk analysis (engineering)Environmental resource managementBusinessGeology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.332
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0040.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.030
GPT teacher head0.310
Teacher spread0.280 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations15
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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