Projecting bird assemblage responses to climate-driven changes in managed boreal forest landscapes of Québec
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity, particularly in northern ecosystems. This study investigates the impacts of climate change and forest management on bird species assemblages in the boreal forests of Québec over the 2020–2100 horizon. Using spatially explicit simulations of forest landscapes and empirical abundance models for 73 bird species, we examined shifts in bird species distributions and habitat changes under various climate scenarios. Our findings highlight a range of sensitivity among bird assemblages across latitude. Results indicate that species associated with boreal coniferous and mixed forests are at greater risk of population decline, especially in southern regions, compared to more generalist species, which showed greater adaptability to changing conditions. The study incorporated the effects of wildfire, demonstrating its significant influence on bird distribution shifts along an east-west axis. Notably, increases in wildfires, especially in the northwest of the study area, may drive northwestward shifts of species associated with human-temperate forests, which can benefit from landscapes dominated by younger stands and pioneer tree species. Additionally, results show that climate change, directly and indirectly via increased wildfires, is the primary driver of habitat shifts for bird species, with its relative contribution projected to exceed forest management impacts by 2100. This research underscores the necessity of integrating disturbance regimes and comprehensive habitat modeling to better predict and manage climate change impacts on avian biodiversity in boreal ecosystems. Our results suggest that targeted conservation actions will be crucial for mitigating future climate-driven distribution shifts and population declines of boreal birds. • Models project distribution and abundance of 73 bird species under climate change. • Boreal coniferous and mixed forest birds face higher decline risk than generalists. • Higher risk of population declines in southern boreal than northern boreal forests. • Increasing wildfires drive northwest shifts in birds benefiting from younger stands. • Increasing wildfires are the main drivers of bird abundance changes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".