Leveraging cancer mutation data to inform the pathogenicity classification of germline missense variants
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Innovative and easy-to-implement strategies are needed to improve the pathogenicity assessment of rare germline missense variants. Somatic cancer driver mutations identified through large-scale tumor sequencing studies often impact genes that are also associated with rare Mendelian disorders. The use of cancer mutation data to aid in the interpretation of germline missense variants, regardless of whether the gene is associated with a hereditary cancer predisposition syndrome or a non-cancer-related developmental disorder, has not been systematically assessed. We extracted putative cancer driver missense mutations from the Cancer Hotspots database and annotated them as germline variants, including presence/absence and classification in ClinVar. We trained two supervised learning models (logistic regression and random forest) to predict variant classifications of germline missense variants in ClinVar using Cancer Hotspot data (training dataset). The performance of each model was evaluated with an independent test dataset generated in part from searching public and private genome-wide sequencing datasets from ~1.5 million individuals. Of the 2,447 cancer mutations, 691 corresponding germline variants had been previously classified in ClinVar: 426 (61.6%) as likely pathogenic/pathogenic, 261 (37.8%) as uncertain significance, and 4 (0.6%) as likely benign/benign. The odds ratio for a likely pathogenic/pathogenic classification in ClinVar was 28.3 (95% confidence interval: 24.2-33.1, p < 0.001), compared with all other germline missense variants in the same 216 genes. Both supervised learning models showed high correlation with pathogenicity assessments in the training dataset. There was high area under precision-recall curve values (0.847 and 0.829) and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values (0.821 and 0.774) for logistic regression and random forest models, respectively, when applied to the test dataset. With the use of cancer and germline datasets and supervised learning techniques, our study shows that cancer mutation data can be leveraged to improve the interpretation of germline missense variation potentially causing rare Mendelian disorders.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.017 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".