LSTM vs. Prophet: Achieving Superior Accuracy in Dynamic Electricity Demand Forecasting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate electricity demand forecasting is critical for improving energy efficiency, maintaining grid stability, reducing operational costs, and promoting sustainability. This study presents a novel hybrid forecasting model that integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Prophet models, leveraging their complementary strengths through a dynamic weighted ensemble methodology. The LSTM component captures nonlinear dependencies and long-term temporal patterns, while Prophet models seasonal trends and event-driven fluctuations. The hybrid model was evaluated using a comprehensive dataset of hourly electricity consumption from Ontario, Canada, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 65.34, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 7.3%, and an R2 of 0.98. These results demonstrate significant improvements over standalone LSTM, Prophet, and other State-of-the-Art methods, highlighting the hybrid model’s adaptability and superior accuracy. This study underscores the practical implications of the hybrid approach, particularly in energy grid management and resource optimization, setting a new benchmark for time series forecasting in the energy sector.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".